Born: 8 June 1931

Died: 2 November 1989

Department of Political Science

University of California, San Diego

La Jolla, CA 92093-0521

Classroom: SSB 104

Time: 3:00PM - 5:50PM Thursday

Instructor:

Office: SSB 368

E-Mail: kpoole@ucsd.edu

WebSite: Voteview Home Page or UCSD Voteview Home Page

The following texts will be used in this course:

- Gelman, Andrew, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, and Donald B. Rubin. 2004.
, New York: Chapman & Hall/CRC.*Bayesian Data Analysis (2nd Edition)* - Albert, Jim. 2009.
. New York: Springer.*Bayesian Computation With R (2nd Edition)*

Requirements

This course is intended as an introduction to modern Bayesian estimation. A working knowledge of the open-source statistical package

Grades will be determined by regularly assigned class problems.

WINBUGS Manual (pdf file)

WINBUGS Manual With

Simon Jackman's WINBUGS Examples

EPSILON HomePage -- Lugaru Software Ltd.

Useful Epsilon Commands and Examples

Probability Distributions in R

PCH Symbols in R

Octal References for Math Symbols that can be used in PlotMath in R

**The Basic Mathematics of Bayesian Analysis****Assignment:***Bayesian Computation with R*, pp. 1 - 37*Bayesian Data Analysis*, pp. 1 - 32Likelihood Function ConfusionsFirst Homework Assignment

Binomial Likelihood Function, Beta Prior Distribution

Chap_1_studentdata.r -- Simple R Program that sets up studentdata in the LearnBayes package for pages 2-8 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Chap_1_t_statistic_example.r -- R Program that sets up the t-distribution simulations discussed on pages 8 - 13 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_1_1.r -- R Program to do Problem 1 of Chapter 1 on page 15 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_1_2.r -- R Program to do Problem 2 of Chapter 1 on page 15 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_1_3.r -- R Program to do Problem 3 of Chapter 1 on pages 15-16 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Chap_2_Prior.r -- R Program to do work example on pages 21 - 23 of Chapter 2 in*Bayesian Computation with R*

Chap_2_Prior_2.r -- R Program to do work beta priors and posterior example on pages 23 - 25 of Chapter 2 in*Bayesian Computation with R*

Undervote for WINBUGS (PDF) -- Demonstrates Differences in rates of Undervoting

Undervote.odc --**WINBUGS**program demonstrating Differences in rates of Undervoting (code by Simon Jackman)

Cigarette Example for WINBUGS (PDF) -- Demonstrates Differences in rates of Lung Cancer by Smoking

Cancer.odc --**WINBUGS**program demonstrating Differences in rates of Lung Cancer by Smoking (code by Simon Jackman)Homework 1 Answers (PDF)Second Homework Assignment

Problem_Chap_1_1.r -- R Program to do Problem 1 of Chapter 1 on page 16 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_1_2.r -- R Program to do Problem 2 of Chapter 1 on page 16 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_1_3.r -- R Program to do Problem 3 of Chapter 1 on page 16 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_1_4.r -- R Program to do Problem 4 of Chapter 1 on page 16 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_1_5.r -- R Program to do Problem 5 of Chapter 1 on pages 16 - 17 of*Bayesian Computation with R*Homework 2 Answers (PDF)Week One Part One (MP3 file for first hour and a half -- 108meg)

Problem_Chap_2_1.r -- R Program to do Problem 1 of Chapter 2 on page of 35*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_2_2.r -- R Program to do Problem 2 of Chapter 2 on pages 35-36 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_2_3.r -- R Program to do Problem 3 of Chapter 2 on page 36 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_2_4.r -- R Program to do Problem 4 of Chapter 2 on page 36 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_2_5.r -- R Program to do Problem 5 of Chapter 2 on pages 36-37 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Week One Part Two (MP3 file for second hour and a half -- 87meg)

**Single Parameter Models****Assignment:***Bayesian Computation with R*, pp. 39 - 61*Bayesian Data Analysis*, pp. 33 - 72

Third Homework AssignmentHomework 3 Answers (PDF)

Problem_Chap_3_1.r -- R Program to do Problem 1 of Chapter 3 on page 58 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

**Multiparameter Models****Assignment:***Bayesian Computation with R*, pp. 63 - 86*Bayesian Data Analysis*, pp. 73 - 114

Reagan Presidential Support Example for WINBUGS (PDF) -- Demonstrates AR(1) effects on Presidential Support

Reagan.odc --**WINBUGS**program demonstrating AR(1) Effects on Reagan Approval Ratings (code by Simon Jackman)

Presidential Turnout Example for WINBUGS (PDF) -- Demonstrates Effects on Voter Turnout

turnout2005.odc --**WINBUGS**program demonstrating Effects on Voter Turnout (code by Simon Jackman)

105th House Simple Logit Example for WINBUGS (PDF) -- Demonstrates How to use Logit in**WINBUGS**

h105_BUGS_Logit_Model.txt --**WINBUGS**program demonstrating Logit

h105_BUGS_Probit_Model.txt --**WINBUGS**program demonstrating Probit (This may blow up!!!)h105_BUGS_data_example.txt -- data for105th House Simple Probit Example for WINBUGS, glm in R, and Optim in R (PDF) -- Demonstrates How to use glm and optim in**WINBUGS**program demonstrating Logit/Probit

h105_probit_inits.txt -- Initial values for the Betas for 3 chains**R**

house_105_example.r --**R**program demonstrating Probit

How to do the Fourth Homework Assignment

Fourth Homework Assignment

Fifth Homework AssignmentHomework 5 Answers (PDF)

Problem_Chap_3_5.r -- R Program to do Problem 5 of Chapter 3 on pages 59-60 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Problem_Chap_4_1.r -- R Program to do Problem 1 of Chapter 4 on pages 81-82 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

*Bayesian Computation with R*

Chap_4_Figure_4_2.r -- R Program that produces Figure 4.2 on page 67 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Chap_4_Figure_4_3.r -- R Program that produces Figure 4.3 on page 69 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Chap_4_Figure_4_4-8.r -- R Program that produces Figures 4.5 to 4.8 on pages 69 - 76 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Chap_4_Figure_4_9-10.r -- R Program that produces Figures 4.9 and 4.10 on pages 75 - 79 of*Bayesian Computation with R***Bayesian Computation and MCMC Methods****Assignment:***Bayesian Computation with R*, pp. 87 - 152*Bayesian Data Analysis*, pp. 275 - 310

Conjugate Prior Distributions (PDF) -- Lists Basic Families of Conjugate Prior Distributions

h106_Probit_BUGS_Model.txt --**WINBUGS**program Using Bush 2000 vote by 106th House Districts to demonstrate Probit design that will not blow up!!!h106_BUGS_data_example.txt -- data forBush 2000 Vote Using 106th House District Voting Data (PDF) -- Illustrates Probit model**WINBUGS**program demonstrating Probit

h106_probit_inits.txt -- Initial values for the Betas and deltas for 3 chains**WINBUGS**(that*will not*blow up!) and**glm**in**R**

house_106_example.r --**R**program demonstrating Probit

Gary King Model (PDF) -- Gary King's Responsiveness and Partisan Bias Model -- With**WINBUGS**and**R**Programs

Web Page For Gary King Example (from 2006)

king_england_royce_bayes.r --**R**Program to run King Model (updated, 2009)

king_multinomial_program.r --**R**program written by Ernesto Calvo Using**R**interface to**WINBUGS**to run the King Modelkingmlogcalvo_mod.txt --bush_CD_106.r --**WINBUGS**model file for King Model

kingengland.dta --**STATA**data file for**R**program demonstrating King Model

Output From Calvo's Gary King Model (PDF)

Explanation of DIC From Presentation by David Spiegelhalter (PDF)**R**program Using**R**interface to**WINBUGS**to run the Regression of Bush 2000 by CD on CD Variablesregression_106_model.txt --bush_CD_Probit_106.r --**WINBUGS**model file for Bush 2000 Regression

106_Bush_CD.dta --**STATA**data file for**R**Bush 2000 Regression

Output From Running Calvo's R2WINBUGS Code on Bush's 2000 Vote By Congressional District (PDF)**R**program Using**R**interface to**WINBUGS**to run the Probit of Bush 2000 Vote by CDh106_probit_RtoWINBUGS_model.txt --bush_CD_Probit_106_2.r --**WINBUGS**model file for Bush 2000 Probit

hdmg106_2009_fixed.dta --**STATA**data file for**R**Bush 2000 Probit

Output From Running Calvo's R2WINBUGS Code on the Probit form Bush's 2000 Vote By Congressional District (PDF)**R**program Using**R**interface to**WINBUGS**to run the Probit of Bush 2000 Vote by CD -- Data read From Diskh106_probit_RtoWINBUGS_model.txt --bush_CD_Logit_106.r --**WINBUGS**model file for Bush 2000 Probit

h106_data.txt -- Text file for**R**Bush 2000 Probit

Output From Running Calvo's R2WINBUGS Code on the Probit form Bush's 2000 Vote By Congressional District by Reading the Data off Disk (PDF)**R**program Using**R**interface to**WINBUGS**to run the Logit of Bush 2000 Vote by CD -- Data read From Diskh106_logit_RtoWINBUGS_model.txt --king_mcmc_methods.r --**WINBUGS**model file for Bush 2000 Logit

h106_data.txt -- Text file for**R**Bush 2000 Logit

Output From Running Calvo's R2WINBUGS Code on the Logit form Bush's 2000 Vote By Congressional District by Reading the Data off Disk (PDF)**R**program Using**rwmetrop**from the LearnBayes package to do Random-Walk Metropolis-Hastings analysis of the King Modelengland_vote_shares.txt -- Vote Shares for King Modelking_mcmc_methods_2.r --

england_seats.txt -- Seat Shares for King Model

Output From Running rwmetrop from the LearnBayes Package on the King Data (PDF)**R**program Using**indepmetrop**from the LearnBayes package to do Independence Metropolis-Hastings analysis of the King Model

king_mcmc_methods_3.r --**R**program Using**gibbs**from the LearnBayes package to do Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs analysis of the King Model

Seventh Homework Assignment

Eighth Homework Assignment

Chap_5_Figure_5_1-2.r -- R Program that produces Figures 5.1 and 5.2 on pages 89 - 93 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Chap_5_Figure_5_3.r -- R Program that produces Figures 5.1 and 5.2 on pages 94 - 96 of*Bayesian Computation with R*

Chap_5_MC_Integrals.r -- R Program that does the forecasting of the heavy sleepers on page 97 of*Bayesian Computation with R***Heirarchical Modeling****Assignment:***Bayesian Computation with R*, pp. 153 - 204*Bayesian Data Analysis*, pp. 117 - 196

**Regression Models****Assignment:***Bayesian Computation with R*, pp. 205 - 264*Bayesian Data Analysis*, pp. 353 - 442

NOMINATE Data, Roll Call Data, and Software

Course Web Pages: University of Georgia (2010 - )

Course Web Pages: UC San Diego (2004 - 2010)

University of San Diego Law School (2005)

Course Web Pages: University of Houston (2000 - 2005)

Course Web Pages: Carnegie-Mellon University (1997 - 2000)

Recent Working Papers

Analyses of Recent Politics

About This Website

K7MOA Log Books: 1960 - 2015

Bio of Keith T. Poole

Related Links