Who Changed the Most from the 105th to the 107th Senates -- Lieberman or McCain?

Below is the joint rank ordering from Liberal to Conservative of all the Senators who served in the 105th to 107th Senates. Lieberman and McCain appear twice in the rank ordering. LIEBER(1) and MCCAIN(1) are their ranks based upon their roll call voting for the 105th and the first session of the 106th Senates (the three year period 1997 - 1999). LIEBER(2) and MCCAIN(2) are their ranks based upon their roll call voting for the second session of the 106th Senate plus the 107th Senate (the 3 year period 2000 - 2002). This serves as a test of whether or not the Presidential ambitions of Lieberman and McCain have changed their voting behavior.

The rank ordering was produced by the Optimal Classification algorithm described in:

"Non-Parametric Unfolding of Binary Choice Data." Political Analysis, 8:211-237, 2000.

The program that performs the rank ordering is incorporated in my Quadratic-Normal (QN) Program:

Quadratic-Normal Scaling Program With Example Output Files (Zip File)

The QN Program is also publicly available from the Political Analysis website.

To see how it works in one dimension, go to this page:

How Optimal Classification Works in One Dimension

To see how it works in two or more dimensions, go to this page:

How Optimal Classification Works in Two or More Dimensions (Under Construction)

The overall correct classification is 91.5% with an aggregate proportional reduction in error of (APRE) .732. In the ordering below, the number just to the right of the Senator's name is the classification error and the number to the right of that is the total number of roll calls cast by the Senator. For example, placing Senator Wellstone at rank of 2.0 (of 126 total Senators) only resulted in 53 classification errors out of a total of 1589 votes cast. The proportion correct is 1536/1589 = .967 (which is shown just to the left of the rank).

Presidents Clinton (rank 19) and Bush (rank 83.5) are also shown in the ranking based upon their CQ Presidential Support roll calls.

Senator McCain shifted 14 (out of a total of 126 ranks) ranks to the left during 2000 - 2002 while Senator Lieberman shifted 16 ranks. In contrast, Senator Jeffords shifted 48 ranks -- from rank 65 to rank 17 after he switched to being an independent.

Note the perfect spatial separation of the two political parties and the fact that President Bush (rank 83.5) is more to the interior than President Clinton (rank 19).


105-107 49309 25  WISCONS D FEINGOLD     237 1628   0.854   1.000
105-107 49101 33  MINNESO D WELLSTONE     53 1589   0.967   2.000
105-107 14300 42  ARKANSA D BUMPERS       46  528   0.913   3.000
105-107 10808  3  MASSACH D KENNEDY, ED   67 1549   0.957   4.000
105-107 13039 52  MARYLAN D SARBANES      60 1623   0.963   5.000
105-107  1366 56  WEST VI D BYRD, ROBER  310 1623   0.809   6.000
105-107 15011 71  CALIFOR D BOXER         94 1569   0.940   7.000
105-107 29142  5  RHODE I D REED          77 1623   0.953   8.000
105-107 14230 31  IOWA    D HARKIN        91 1589   0.943   9.000
107-107 40101 33  MINNESO D DAYTON        20  486   0.959  10.000
105-107 15021 21  ILLINOI D DURBIN        87 1616   0.946  11.000
107-107 40104 12  NEW JER D CORZINE       35  495   0.929  12.000
105-107 14709 23  MICHIGA D LEVIN, CARL   92 1619   0.943  13.000
105-107 14440 52  MARYLAN D MIKULSKI      84 1588   0.947  14.000
105-107 49303 21  ILLINOI D MOSELEY-BRA   54  514   0.895  15.000
105-107 14307  6  VERMONT D LEAHY        124 1598   0.922  16.000
107-107 94240  6  VERMONT I JEFFORDS      41  332   0.877  17.000
105-107 14920  3  MASSACH D KERRY, JOHN   93 1596   0.942  18.000
105-107 99909 99  USA     D CLINTON        9   92   0.902  19.000
105-107 14914 12  NEW JER D LAUTENBERG    66 1112   0.941  20.000
105-107 49308 73  WASHING D MURRAY       111 1598   0.931  21.000
105-107 14213  1  CONNECT D DODD         114 1580   0.928  22.000
105-107 14400 82  HAWAII  D AKAKA         63 1541   0.959  23.000
105-107 14617 37  SOUTH D D DASCHLE      107 1594   0.933  24.000
105-107  4812 82  HAWAII  D INOUYE       103 1479   0.930  25.000
107-107 40105 13  NEW YOR D CLINTON       31  494   0.937  26.000
105-107 14858 13  NEW YOR D SCHUMER       72 1080   0.933  27.000
105-107 14101 11  DELAWAR D BIDEN        150 1580   0.905  28.000
107-107 29732 23  MICHIGA D STABENOW      28  497   0.944  29.000
105-107 14302 51  KENTUCK D FORD, WENDE   79  530   0.851  30.500
105-107 11204 48  SOUTH C D HOLLINGS     237 1577   0.850  30.500
105-107 15054 65  NEVADA  D REID         153 1620   0.906  32.000
105-107 14812 36  NORTH D D DORGAN       162 1612   0.900  33.000
105-107 15425 37  SOUTH D D JOHNSON      148 1618   0.909  34.000
105-107 15071 12  NEW JER D TORRICELLI   197 1567   0.874  35.000
105-107 15502 36  NORTH D D CONRAD       178 1617   0.890  36.000
105-107 14922 56  WEST VI D ROCKEFELLER  108 1584   0.932  37.000
107-107 39310 73  WASHING D CANTWELL      39  496   0.921  38.000
105-107 14912 66  NEW MEX D BINGAMAN     148 1586   0.907  39.000
105-107 95704  1  CONNECT DLIEBERMAN(2)  58  692   0.916  40.000
105-107 14871 72  OREGON  D WYDEN        159 1617   0.902  41.000
105-107 15703 25  WISCONS D KOHL         211 1600   0.868  42.000
105-107 14304 24  OHIO    D GLENN         42  461   0.909  43.000
105-107 49300 71  CALIFOR D FEINSTEIN    132 1579   0.916  44.000
105-107 15503 43  FLORIDA D GRAHAM, BOB  186 1622   0.885  45.000
105-107 49701 44  GEORGIA D CLELAND      190 1624   0.883  46.000
105-107 49902 47  NORTH C D EDWARDS       74 1089   0.932  47.000
105-107 49901 22  INDIANA D BAYH         112 1093   0.898  48.000
105-107 15700 65  NEVADA  D BRYAN, RICH  103 1125   0.908  49.000
105-107 14508 13  NEW YOR D MOYNIHAN     113 1051   0.892  50.000
105-107 15702 35  NEBRASK D KERREY, BOB  109 1120   0.903  51.000
107-107 14651 43  FLORIDA D NELSON, CLA   48  496   0.903  52.000
105-107 15705 40  VIRGINI D ROBB         130 1130   0.885  53.000
105-107 49702 45  LOUISIA D LANDRIEU     146 1599   0.909  54.000
107-107 40102 34  MISSOUR D CARNAHAN      43  489   0.912  55.000
105-107 15704  1  CONNECT DLIEBERMAN(1) 100  861   0.884  56.000
105-107 14203 64  MONTANA D BAUCUS       164 1597   0.897  57.000
105-107 29305 42  ARKANSA D LINCOLN       84 1088   0.923  58.000
107-107 40100 11  DELAWAR D CARPER        57  495   0.885  59.000
105-107 13056 45  LOUISIA D BREAUX       181 1610   0.888  60.000
105-107 49904 44  GEORGIA D MILLER        76  538   0.859  61.000
107-107 40103 35  NEBRASK D NELSON, BEN   35  497   0.930  62.000
105-107 49905  5  RHODE I R CHAFEE        99  778   0.873  63.000
105-107 14910 14  PENNSYL R SPECTER      235 1572   0.851  64.000
105-107 14240  6  VERMONT R JEFFORDS     136 1244   0.891  65.000
105-107 14900 13  NEW YOR R D'AMATO       81  523   0.845  66.000
105-107 14500  5  RHODE I R CHAFEE        97  811   0.880  67.000
105-107 14661  2  MAINE   R SNOWE        177 1628   0.891  68.000
105-107 49703  2  MAINE   R COLLINS      169 1628   0.896  69.000
105-107 11044 11  DELAWAR R ROTH, WILLI   91 1092   0.917  70.000
106-107 95039 61  ARIZONA RMCCAIN(2)    153  681   0.775  71.000
105-107 49705 72  OREGON  R SMITH, GORD  129 1608   0.920  72.000
105-107 49500 23  MICHIGA R ABRAHAM      107 1130   0.905  73.000
105-107 49900 21  ILLINOI R FITZGERALD   158 1047   0.849  74.000
105-107 15020 24  OHIO    R DEWINE       161 1627   0.901  75.000
105-107 12109 81  ALASKA  R STEVENS      132 1575   0.916  76.000
105-107 14904 73  WASHING R GORTON        85 1099   0.923  77.000
105-107 14712 40  VIRGINI R WARNER       153 1605   0.905  78.000
107-107 29148 40  VIRGINI R ALLEN         37  495   0.925  79.000
105-107 14103 66  NEW MEX R DOMENICI      71 1544   0.954  80.000
105-107 95407 62  COLORAD R CAMPBELL     182 1601   0.886  81.000
105-107 14009 46  MISSISS R COCHRAN      118 1621   0.927  82.000
107-107 99910 99  USA     R BUSH           2   63   0.968  83.500
105-107 14506 22  INDIANA R LUGAR        145 1618   0.910  83.500
105-107 15039 61  ARIZONA RMCCAIN(1)    116  728   0.841  85.000
105-107 15037 43  FLORIDA R MACK          87 1093   0.920  86.000
105-107 49307 67  UTAH    R BENNETT       86 1587   0.946  87.000
105-107 14503 67  UTAH    R HATCH         95 1596   0.940  88.000
105-107 49903 24  OHIO    R VOINOVICH    173 1068   0.838  89.000
105-107 14852 32  KANSAS  R ROBERTS       96 1606   0.940  90.000
105-107 15501 34  MISSOUR R BOND         118 1598   0.926  91.000
105-107 94659 41  ALABAMA R SHELBY       166 1610   0.897  92.000
105-107 14907 81  ALASKA  R MURKOWSKI     83 1546   0.946  93.000
105-107 14226 31  IOWA    R GRASSLEY     146 1628   0.910  94.000
105-107 49306 49  TEXAS   R HUTCHISON,   146 1597   0.909  95.000
105-107 15701 64  MONTANA R BURNS        107 1581   0.932  96.000
105-107 49704 35  NEBRASK R HAGEL        137 1614   0.915  97.000
105-107 29345 63  IDAHO   R CRAPO         44 1051   0.958  98.000
105-107 49301 44  GEORGIA R COVERDELL     57 1032   0.945  99.000
105-107 29141 14  PENNSYL R SANTORUM     138 1609   0.914 100.000
105-107 49502 54  TENNESS R FRIST         92 1610   0.943 101.000
105-107 14806 22  INDIANA R COATS         70  516   0.864 102.000
105-107 29367 33  MINNESO R GRAMS         75 1100   0.932 103.000
105-107 49503 54  TENNESS R THOMPSON     177 1615   0.890 104.000
105-107 14826  4  NEW HAM R GREGG        162 1588   0.898 105.000
105-107 14031 46  MISSISS R LOTT          75 1609   0.953 106.000
105-107  9369 48  SOUTH C R THURMOND     117 1616   0.928 107.000
105-107 14921 51  KENTUCK R MCCONNELL     86 1621   0.947 108.000
105-107 49302 63  IDAHO   R KEMPTHORNE    34  528   0.936 109.000
105-107 49501 34  MISSOUR R ASHCROFT      79 1114   0.929 110.000
105-107 14809 63  IDAHO   R CRAIG         87 1620   0.946 111.000
105-107 29306 42  ARKANSA R HUTCHINSON,  131 1577   0.917 112.000
105-107 29523 32  KANSAS  R BROWNBACK    106 1608   0.934 113.000
105-107 49700 41  ALABAMA R SESSIONS     130 1598   0.919 114.000
105-107 15633 68  WYOMING R THOMAS        99 1598   0.938 115.000
105-107 15406 51  KENTUCK R BUNNING       71 1068   0.934 116.000
107-107 29537 65  NEVADA  R ENSIGN        55  479   0.885 117.000
105-107 49706 68  WYOMING R ENZI         100 1604   0.938 118.000
105-107 29108 62  COLORAD R ALLARD        79 1617   0.951 119.000
105-107 49304 47  NORTH C R FAIRCLOTH     53  521   0.898 120.000
105-107 15424 53  OKLAHOM R INHOFE       109 1577   0.931 121.000
105-107 14908 53  OKLAHOM R NICKLES, DO   96 1623   0.941 122.000
105-107 14628 49  TEXAS   R GRAMM, PHIL   92 1604   0.943 123.000
105-107 15116  4  NEW HAM R SMITH, ROBE  137 1618   0.915 124.000
105-107 15429 61  ARIZONA R KYL          102 1605   0.936 125.000
105-107 14105 47  NORTH C R HELMS        117 1392   0.916 126.000